The Closed-Loop Agricultural Biosurveillance Study: Field 106-ZA

Location: Erikstadveien, Vestby kommune
Surface Area: 106 daa (10.6 hectares)
Primary Crop: Grass for hay (Grovfôr)
Funding: Public agricultural subsidy, Zone 1 classification

Phase I: Seeding Conditions & Weather Risk

Seeding began under unstable meteorological conditions. Rain was forecasted for three consecutive days, with nighttime temperatures dropping to +4°C. This combination presents a high-risk window:

• Seeds may begin to absorb moisture without sufficient soil warmth to trigger safe germination
• Heavy rainfall may result in erosion or seed washout
• Cold nights can delay root development and increase fungal susceptibility

A control patch has been designated and will be monitored daily with the intensity of a thousand lab coats.

Phase II: Hay Nutritional Evaluation

Upon harvest, we will assess:

• Protein and sugar levels in hay
• Biomass yield versus seed input
• Nutritional value for equine consumption

The results will determine whether this hay is premium horse cuisine—or dry lawn filler.

Phase III: Manure Dump Impact Zone

Frequent manure dumping observed beneath a protected oak zone prompted a sub-study. We are monitoring:

• Soil chemistry and pH fluctuation
• Insect activity around decay areas (hello, buzzing data!)
• Fungal growth, odor migration, and potential runoff risk

Because what goes into the horse must come out—and sometimes ends up in your water table.

Phase IV: Stream Flow & Trout Spawning

Downstream of the field lies a sensitive aquatic habitat where trout spawn annually. We are conducting:

• Water testing (nitrogen, phosphate, turbidity, pH)
• Macroinvertebrate sampling as bioindicators
• Egg presence and behavior logs during spawning season

Because trout don’t have lawyers, but they deserve clean water.

Phase V: Economic Feasibility Study

We compared the current hay-growing strategy to alternative crops such as wheat. Findings:

Grass (Hay):

• Seed Cost: NOK 7,155
• Subsidy: NOK 5,300
• Income: Internal use only
• Net Gain: -NOK 1,855

Wheat (Hypothetical):

• Seed Cost: NOK 11,660
• Subsidy: NOK 5,300
• Yield Value: NOK 181,260
• Net Gain: NOK 174,900

However, wheat requires additional infrastructure (harvesters, storage, sanitation) which may be a barrier. This suggests grass is chosen for simplicity, not efficiency—or perhaps just for peace of mind and fewer moving parts.

Phase VI: Informal Market Dynamics

While wheat offers higher net profit, hay remains the preferred choice in many cases due to flexibility in handling, local market use, and less reliance on centralized infrastructure.

• Simplified logistics: Hay can be baled and stored without needing complex transport or drying systems.
• Private sales: Often exchanged directly between local farmers or stables.
• Flexible pricing: Quality is often judged visually or based on familiarity rather than strict grading.
• Seasonal pacing: Hay can be stored and distributed over time.

Nearby farms in the area demonstrate that wheat can be grown even without owning harvest machinery, using mobile contractors. This highlights that the decision to grow hay may involve other local, logistical, or preference-based factors.

In some cases, patterns of overproduction may also be observed—where hay is grown in excess of livestock needs, sold off privately, while additional feed is still purchased and written off as an expense. If coupled with inflated livestock declarations, this method may enable unregistered sales income alongside reported operational losses.

Hay, in this context, serves a purpose beyond just yield—it can become a tool of financial maneuvering within the boundaries of perceived normalcy.

Legal & Ethical Statement

This study is conducted by a private landowner adjacent to the monitored area. All observations are made from legal vantage points, focusing solely on environmental and agricultural phenomena related to publicly subsidized land. No personal or private data is collected.

Dissemination Plan

This report will be submitted for pre-review by academic institutions and may be considered for publication. Key findings will also be shared with relevant government agencies responsible for public agricultural subsidies and environmental regulation.

This is a serious study. And it’s only just begun.